Thursday, July 17, 2008

Make Small mistakes

I watched a Rizen vid recently that talks about making small mistakes vs the big mistakes. Poker is a game of mistakes after all and the player making less will win most often. Unfortunately i tend to make the big mistakes late in tournies most often... its something i continue to work on.

This is a hand from the Daily double B tourny tonight on Fulltilt...

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 150/300 Blinds, 25 Ante, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

MP1: 1,710
MP2: 10,335
CO: 8,588
Hero (BTN): 9,180
SB: 20,584
BB: 13,126
UTG: 8,305
UTG+1: 6,790

Pre-Flop: (650) Kd As dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 300, 2 folds, CO raises to 1,200, Hero raises to 9,155 and is All-In, 3 folds, CO calls 7,363 and is All-In

Flop: (18,076) 4s Qh 6c (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: (18,076) 3h (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (18,076) 2s (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 18,076 Pot

Analysis:
I start the hand with 30BB and Villain with 28BB so we're deep. There's a EP limp and villain makes it 4xbb. Villain was running 18/11. So he's raising 11% of his hands which is roughly 22+, KQs, ATo+, ATs+ vs. this range i have 53% equity. if Villain is folding 50% of the time i have 47% equity... so the push is still a +ev play either way.

My thoughts:
while my spread sheet says its a +EV play i think it might've been a mistake for several reasons.

1. We were pretty deep

2. I had been playing pretty aggresively. The sb and myself had reraised or reshoved this guy several times already.

3. I searched him on OPR and he had a 53% rating... person's with this rating i think generally have problems letting go of good but not great hands (like medium pocket pairs) and can be outplayed post flop rather easily.

So what are my options on this hand?

1. Reraise - Make it 3600 which would give him about 2:1 on a call... but looks a lot stronger? I would be pot committed and have to call if he reshoves but if he calls i would have around a pot sized bet left on the flop. He'd have 2 opportunities to fold a better hand; pre flop and on the flop.

2. Smooth Call - Just calling controls the size of the pot allowing more flexibility. It also gives the very aggressive SB a chance to make a move which i'd be more than willing to call if everyone else folds. On the flop i could easily outplay villain to take the pot or fold if he makes a big bet leaving me with 27bb.

I'm generally an agressive player, so i tend to choose the more aggresive option whenever i'm in a hand... but i've busted several tournaments making aggressive plays, that had i played differently i couldve gotten away from or won outright.

I'm not a fan of the waiting for better spots plan but i do feel i have an edge on alot of the field in some of the tournys i play in. I'm looking for ways to take better advantage of that edge.

I'd appreciate any thoughts on my analysis above.

-Isgrinder

2 comments:

Pud's Poker said...

You played it how I probably would although I have now started to flat call with AK and see a flop against certain villains.

What is this spreadsheet you mentioned? Is it something you made or have downloaded from somewhere?

Game101 said...

hey pud... i'm definitely trying to find different ways to play AK other than just shoving.

I made the spreadsheet by following some instructions from a Sheets video... basically it calculates your EV when reshoving out of the blinds.

-Isgrinder

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