I only played two tournaments tonight. A $4/180 on Stars and a $6.50 Bounty on UB. I played really well in both tournaments but again made one huge mistake down the stretch to bust out.
I finished 36th in the UB bounty having collected 3 bounties for a total prize of about $14 bucks... 39 places paid. I was sitting in about 10th place when i decided to get cute and had a complete meltdown....
I've seen this line numerous times and its very rarely weakness this late in a tourny... yet i've busted against it several times, although with better hands that this one. In future i will have to hold a monster to continue.
I finished 10th in the 180.... again sitting in good chip position on a completely unnecessary hand.
sigh... its dissappointing to look at because i know i'm better than these plays and i could've done some serious damage in both tournys.
This situation with the mono flop has also occured several times and i've busted before playing it aggressively. In future i will attempt to play more cautiously in this situation... to drive home the lesson i've reviewed some numbers in pokerstove.
Firstly i think i probably couldve reraised this hand since we're short handed but calling wasnt so bad against another big stack with position and a potentially dominated hand.... or was it?
On the flop is where i botched it completely... I've run this in poker stove against several potential hands
22+ vs. AJs = 54/46 dog
Made flush or Set = 70/30 dog
AT or TP type hands = 56/44 dog .... i might have some FE against these hands but is it worth it?
I also remember busting one tournament with a set on a mono flop that i played aggressively... so i ran those numbers also...
set vs. Made flush = 65/35 dog
set vs. 22+ = 70/30 fav
set vs. flush draw = 70/30 fav
The shove with the nut flush draw is really donkish now that i've look at it... It will only get called by hands that have me in bad shape... namely a made flush or set. With a set on a mono flop i should charge draws but still not go crazy.