Thursday, July 19, 2007

Thursday Update: Bubble Boy

I played two $4/180 tournies today, was poised to go deep in the first one but ran into a bad beat in the first hour in the process of building my stack. I was actually a short stack in the second at the time i busted out. I refocused on the this tourny and went deep; finishing 10th.

This is my final hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t43133)
Hero (t23832)
Button (t31389)
SB (t46168)
BB (t13735)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Ah, 9h.
UTG raises to t1600, Hero raises to t23757, 3 folds, UTG calls t22157.

Flop: (t47739) Ts, Qs, 7h (2 players)

Turn: (t47739) Jc (2 players)

River: (t47739) Th (2 players)

Final Pot: t47739
Results below:
UTG has Kh Qc (two pair, queens and tens).
Hero has Ah 9h (one pair, tens).
Outcome: UTG wins t47739.

Analysis:
why i made the play:

We are on the FT bubble villian had become really lag, applying pressure pre-flop and post-flop to take down pots. I felt i was ahead of his range. The table had gone into bunker mode; I expected that i'd only get called by KK/AA, maybe QQ behind. Villian would call a reraise.

Was the play correct;
I'm still unsure about this. It was correct in that my hand was ahead of his range, but i'm not sure if it was correct given the tournament situation. I committed 30bb AI pf with A9s. Another option, now that i think about it some more, was to make it 5-6k. I really don't want to see a flop here and would have to shut down if called... which is not appealing.

What about villian's call;
donkey!... lol. Nah j/k, it may seem like a horrible call. But when he made it i immediately saw the possible logic. If he actually thought about it, then more power to him and he's someone to be aware of. If not he made a donkey call that might turn out to be correct and got lucky. same result but big difference between a losing and winning player.

Given my push villian could reasonably rule out QQ+, the hands that have him crushed. Worst case scenario is AK. if he's aware he probably wouldve noticed that i'm playing a solid game, so he knows i would probably not shove AQ here. Against my remaining range he's basically flipping.

His stack is double my own. Given this and the above thought process, he couldve realized that if he called and won he would be in position to run the final table. But if he called and lost he would be an average stack, which is still 25xbb.

what would you do?

2 comments:

Jørgen said...

Hi Grinder been reading your blog for some time now, but my first post though. Absolute Donk-call! He should have realised you were ahead of his range and folded. It's ok to be LAG coming close to the bubble, especially if the whole table has gone in bunker mode, but if someone comes over the top, FOLD! The only reson to call an all-in here is your'e calling a short-stack or getting 4 to 1 odds on the call (calling a shorty)

Game101 said...

Ya... I have to agree, It was a really bad call. I watched a bit of the final table and he was a donkey.

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