Haven't been able to do a review of my win yet. Things have been kinda hectic, trying to finish a case study and prepare for a final stats exam. GOD I HATE this course!
I feel pretty good poker-wise, but i can't play as much as i'd like right now. Played 2 $4 180 man sngs in the last two days and final tabled both, finishing 8th & 2nd.
By Wednesday i will be done with this course and able to focus on just playing in my off time. In the mean time i will continue limited play and watch PXF vids during my study break time.
Showing posts with label holdem poker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label holdem poker. Show all posts
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
6max NL bug: Catching it again
Its been a few weeks since i've played 6max nlhe and i'm beginning to feel the itch to play again. I've played a few sessions on UB and have done ok. I finally took a look at my stats for June and i'm only down 3 BIs after less than 10k hands.
This is not as bad as it felt. I made some truly horrible plays but not surprisingly these were preceeded by some equally horrendous beats. But i realize now that these beats were actually good because my opponents were willing to go up against me with subpar hands, unfortunately they often won. Despite the beats there were often hands where i was clearly beat and still paid off my opponents. So i am not going to indulge that fantasy that i was playing great and just suffered some variance.
In any case this situation has led me to reevaluate my approach to poker. I now know that i cannot be a constant nlhe grinder. Instead i will try to play a mix of Mtts, NLHE (6max), SNGs and PLO, all at a leisurely pace. Hopefully i will make some money while also enjoying the game.
This is not as bad as it felt. I made some truly horrible plays but not surprisingly these were preceeded by some equally horrendous beats. But i realize now that these beats were actually good because my opponents were willing to go up against me with subpar hands, unfortunately they often won. Despite the beats there were often hands where i was clearly beat and still paid off my opponents. So i am not going to indulge that fantasy that i was playing great and just suffered some variance.
In any case this situation has led me to reevaluate my approach to poker. I now know that i cannot be a constant nlhe grinder. Instead i will try to play a mix of Mtts, NLHE (6max), SNGs and PLO, all at a leisurely pace. Hopefully i will make some money while also enjoying the game.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Poker Math I
Poker is a game of strategy based on mathematics and psyhcology. In order to be a winning player you should have a firm grasp of the math involved in poker. when i became interested in poker the first thing i did was to research the rules of games, followed by learning hand rankings and the basic hand & pot odds. That is basically as far as i have gone in terms of the math of poker. I've picked up on implied odds from reading the forums but have not studied it myself. I have never sat and done an EV calculation in my life! This will change shortly but first i will address hand odds & pot odds.
Hand Odds & Pot Odds
Your hand odds are basically the chance you making your hand.
There is a long drawn out method to calculating you're hand odds but i will not get into that. Instead i will give you the short and sweet method that i initially learned.
[Total outs x 2]+ 2 = percentage to make hand from turn
[Total outs x 4] = percentage to make hand from flop
Inside straight drw [4outs x 4] = 16%
Two overs [6outs x 4] = 24%
OESD [8outs x 4] = 32%
flush drw [9outs x 4] = 36%
flush drw + Gutshot [12outs x 4] = 48% (actually 45%)
flush + straight drw [15outs x 4] = 60% (actually 54%)
As you can see this method gives you a rough estimate and can be off by a few percentage points... especially with the combo drws. But it is good enough to use at the tables.
Convert percentages to odds as follows
Odds = [100 / whole percentage]- 1
e.g
Odds of making OESD = (100/32)-1 = 2:1
2:1 odds mean you can expect to make your drw 1 out of 3 times.
Pot odds are the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to how much it cost to call.
If there is 100.00 in the pot and its 10.00 for you to call then you're pot odds are 100:10 or 10:1. The higher the ratio the better you're pot odds. If you were to make this call, you must make your hand 1 out of 11 times just to break even! The thinking is that if you make this play 11 times it will cost you 110.00, but when you win once you will get 110.00 back.
While at the tables you compare your pot odds to the hand odds to make the most profitable play. So id there is 35.00 in the pot and its 10.00 for you to call with a flush draw the pot is laying you 45:10 or 4.5:1 odds. You must win this hand 1 out of 5 times to break even, but the odds of winning with the flush draw is 1 out of 3 times.
Net cost to play = 100 hands x 10.00 to call = -1000.00
Pot value = 35.00 + 10.00 bet + 10 call = 55.00
Odds to win = 2:1 or 35% (from flop)
Total hands won = 100 x 35% = 35
Net profit = Cost to play + [Total times won x Pot value]
= -1000.00 + (35 * 55)
= -1000.00 + 1925.00
= $925.00
If your Pot Odds are greater than your Hand Odds, then you are making profit in the long run!
This is pretty basic and straight forward stuff but its good to go back over it. I very rarely think about this at the tables in this form, I just try to ensure that i'm getting at least 4:1 or better to call. If its close then i decide if i will be able to get more money if i hit my hand. I will be progressing through more complicated examples, Implied odds, reverse implied odds and eventually EV calculations.
ps. just want to add that i'm referencing various books and internet sources for my info... which i read, think about then post here as i understand it. I'm no math whiz, far from it, but i think going through this process will help me.
Hand Odds & Pot Odds
Your hand odds are basically the chance you making your hand.
There is a long drawn out method to calculating you're hand odds but i will not get into that. Instead i will give you the short and sweet method that i initially learned.
[Total outs x 2]+ 2 = percentage to make hand from turn
[Total outs x 4] = percentage to make hand from flop
Inside straight drw [4outs x 4] = 16%
Two overs [6outs x 4] = 24%
OESD [8outs x 4] = 32%
flush drw [9outs x 4] = 36%
flush drw + Gutshot [12outs x 4] = 48% (actually 45%)
flush + straight drw [15outs x 4] = 60% (actually 54%)
As you can see this method gives you a rough estimate and can be off by a few percentage points... especially with the combo drws. But it is good enough to use at the tables.
Convert percentages to odds as follows
Odds = [100 / whole percentage]- 1
e.g
Odds of making OESD = (100/32)-1 = 2:1
2:1 odds mean you can expect to make your drw 1 out of 3 times.
Pot odds are the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to how much it cost to call.
If there is 100.00 in the pot and its 10.00 for you to call then you're pot odds are 100:10 or 10:1. The higher the ratio the better you're pot odds. If you were to make this call, you must make your hand 1 out of 11 times just to break even! The thinking is that if you make this play 11 times it will cost you 110.00, but when you win once you will get 110.00 back.
While at the tables you compare your pot odds to the hand odds to make the most profitable play. So id there is 35.00 in the pot and its 10.00 for you to call with a flush draw the pot is laying you 45:10 or 4.5:1 odds. You must win this hand 1 out of 5 times to break even, but the odds of winning with the flush draw is 1 out of 3 times.
Net cost to play = 100 hands x 10.00 to call = -1000.00
Pot value = 35.00 + 10.00 bet + 10 call = 55.00
Odds to win = 2:1 or 35% (from flop)
Total hands won = 100 x 35% = 35
Net profit = Cost to play + [Total times won x Pot value]
= -1000.00 + (35 * 55)
= -1000.00 + 1925.00
= $925.00
If your Pot Odds are greater than your Hand Odds, then you are making profit in the long run!
This is pretty basic and straight forward stuff but its good to go back over it. I very rarely think about this at the tables in this form, I just try to ensure that i'm getting at least 4:1 or better to call. If its close then i decide if i will be able to get more money if i hit my hand. I will be progressing through more complicated examples, Implied odds, reverse implied odds and eventually EV calculations.
ps. just want to add that i'm referencing various books and internet sources for my info... which i read, think about then post here as i understand it. I'm no math whiz, far from it, but i think going through this process will help me.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Spring Forward 5 buy - ins
Daylight savings time is kicking into effect at 2:00 am, so i thought i'd go with that theme for the title of this post. Of course my bankroll also sprung forward 5 buy-ins tonight. I was really please with the way i played also. I think except for one situation i got the most out of all my big hands and lost the least when i couldve lost more when behind. Also had one suck-out vs. a short stack. so all in all a good session.
River Extraction In hindsight I think i could've gotten it all-in if i had bet the turn. but i think i got the most I couldve on the river.
TT AI Pre-flop which was worst, my push or his call? this guy had sat down about 3 orbits ago and had been playing really aggressive... his huge rr didn't look like QQ-AA but still could've been JJ i suppose.
Weekend Madness I
Weekend Madness II
F#@k short stacks
back on course to accomplish my March goals... Just gotta stay focus.
ps. I'm looking for some additional blogs to put up... so if you have one and happen to be on this page leave a comment and we can exchange links.
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